Anthro, Math, Science

Quantum Computing and the Scientific Method

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Wed, 02 Dec 2009 12:50:00 +0000

A while back I expounded an idea that the scientific method as generally practiced couldn't be used in a quantum world. In particular, I argued that the only way to verify a theory was to make a measurement, and that the only way to check the correctness of the measurement was to couple a prediction device with a measurement device. The prediction device might be pencil and paper or it might be a computer. Classically, the result of the prediction can be written down and used for comparison at any time in the future. With quantum mechanics, this is impossible. Now, I don't feel I made a convincing case at the time (this was about a year ago, and I drove a few of my friends nuts talking about my idea), but I found a paper by David Deutsch that does make a convincing case. All Deutsch's arguments apply to the scientific method, so long as it can be shown that the scientific method is a classical algorithm that can be implemented on a Turing machine, which seems obvious to me -- though I haven't sat down and proven it. In fact, if the scientific method can't be framed as such an algorithm, I really don't know what it is! Some heuristic? Note that Deutsch believes his arguments apply even if one accepts (viz Penrose) the Platonic reality of mathematical ideas!

http://xxx.lanl.gov/pdf/math/9911150v1

To grok or not to grok

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 09:04:00 +0000

Robert Heinlein made up the word grok for his book Stranger in a Strange Land. A character in the book says, "Grok means to understand so thoroughly that the observer becomes a part of the observed." But can everything be grokked? As I write this blog, I am waiting for a relatively complicated Matlab model to finish running (in fact, I have three separate instances of Matlab running on two different computers). When I am done running my models, I will have generated many gigabytes of data. Can I have any hope of grokking that massive amount of data?

Colin McGinn asks an analogous question about "consciousness" in his 1989 article "Can We Solve the Mind-Body Problem?" He concludes no:

"We have been trying for a long time to solve the mind-body problem. It has stubbornly resisted our best efforts. The mystery persists. I think the time has come to admit candidly that we cannot resolve the mystery. But I also think that this very insolubility -- or the reason for it -- removes the philosophical problem."

He goes on to introduce the idea of cognitive closure. Basically, a mind is cognitively closed with respect to a particular problem if and only if it cannot grasp theproblem (one might say cannot grok the problem). He argues that human minds are cognitively closed on the problem of our own consciousness. After all, how could a brain go through any set of cognitive processes to understand itself? "[A]s traditional theologians found themselves conceding cognitive closure with respect to certain of the properties of God, so we should look seriously at the idea that the mind-body problem brings us bang up against the limits of our capacity to understand the world."

Now, I have major reservations with McGinn's approach and conclusions. For example, sometimes questions cannot be answered because they are formulated incorrectly or are fundamentally nonsensical rather than because they cannot be answered within a certain structure (vis Godel's incompleteness theorem). I suspect consciousness is just one of those muddy concepts about which people make nonsensical claims without realizing they are doing so. Also, mathematicians frequently prove difficult theorems only because they can write down intermediate results; should we reject such mathematical proofs because they do not spring full-formed from the mind of the mathematician, as Athena from the head of Zeus? Nevertheless, I find McGinn's idea intriguing and it has shed some light on my approach to some vexing problems.

In a very real sense, I am letting the computer do some thinking for me as I run and interpret the model I am currently working on. This is especially true if (as is true of my model) there is a random, stochastic character to the model. I can make statistical statements about the output of my model, but I cannot hope to atomistic-ally understand my model's output. Does it really matter that I did not personally create the computer's output, so long as I understand how I am using it? Consider a mathematician who uses another mathematician's theorem (or even his own from some time in the past) which he does not currently grok -- is the situation really so different from mine, where the computer is creating the intermediate result? What if the software package being used is not Matlab, but Mathematica, which is explicitly designed to do symbolic calculations? This is a vexing question.

There is another problem of similar ilk that vexes me: genetic "mapping." In his book The Journey of Man, Spencer Wells describes how "tags" on the human genome let us map the dispersal of our species across the globe from our ancestral homeland in Africa. The data Spencer Wells and his colleagues use currently stretches the ability of the scientific community to "grok" and present in a coherent story. I suspect that in the very near future, the data stream will be so massive that only computers will be able to interpret it (if that is not already so). After all, the human genome contains about three billion base pairs and there are currently six billion or so people on the earth! Furthermore, most questions require some sort of relational information (i.e., networks of related people), so that the important questions are really of the order of the exponent of the product of three billion and six billion!!! (FYI, that's a very large number.)

In conclusion, I feel strongly that one of the most important questions facing today's scientists is how to "update" the "scientific method" to solve problems intractable to the individual human mind, or even to the collective scientific community. BTW, I put "scientific method" in quotes because, like consciousness, it is one of those concepts people frequently use in a muddy way. This is unfortunate and (probably) unnecessary. I shan't take the issue up now, but perhaps sometime soon I will post about Quine, Popper (shudder), semantic holism, quantum measurement, and so forth!

myTouch

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Fri, 31 Jul 2009 06:24:00 +0000

Two big things happened/are happening this week. First, I finally got my new myTouch Android phone. Second, I'm moving out of my apartment. The myTouch is awesome. The coolest feature so far is the bar code reading application I downloaded earlier today. For the past couple weeks I've been typing book ISBN's into my computer by hand as I pack each book. Typing the ISBN's is time consuming and prone to error. With my new barcode reader I get each ISBN in seconds and, with a few taps, save the book to my online Google Library. Then I go to Google Library and add labels to the book, such as 'box 4' and/or 'to stanford'. Incredibly convenient! Oh, the happy confluence of Android and moving boxes! I think I'll glue barcodes to all my underwear next. That way I can track how often I wash each pair. OK, maybe not :). But I could, and that's what matters!

Kindle DX

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sun, 28 Jun 2009 01:03:00 +0000

I have exciting news! I just ordered a Kindle DX from Amazon. It should arrive in the next couple weeks. I was torn on whether to buy one, but was finally won over for three reasons (in order of importance). (1) You can view PDF document with the Kindle DX, unlike with the previous instantiations of the Kindle; most academic papers are distributed in PDF format. (2) You can access Wikipedia wirelessly using the Kindle DX. (3) Textbook publishers are partnering with Amazon to provide cheap, eTextbooks; reading material online rarely bothers me, but keeping old, clunky textbooks around on the premise I may one day use them does.

All that being said, there is one service I wish existed. I would like to trade in my hard copy books for soft copy versions. After all, I already own a copyright on the material. I don't like lugging books around from place to place on the premise (again) that I will one day re-read them. Nevertheless, I frequently do re-read books, so my collection follows me. One additional advantage of ebooks (beyond portability) is searchability. A couple weeks ago I spent a full half hour searching my hard copy of The Last Days of Socrates for a passage I could have easily found electronically in mere seconds.

Is anyone aware of such a service, whereby I can exchange hard copies for soft copies? I would even pay money for the service (perhaps $1 per book). On this note, I am curious what the price difference is between used hard copy books and new soft copy books... perhaps I shall look into this. Hmm, maybe there's even a business idea here. If you steal the idea, just tell me about your service so I can use it :).

The Grind

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Fri, 22 May 2009 00:27:00 +0000

I've been very focused on work recently, putting in a lot of time and effort. As a result, I haven't had much time to read or think about anthropology, although I have been working hard on my Indonesian language skills. Nevertheless, this morning I listened to a podcast in which Colin Renfrew (of PIE Anatolian Urmheit fame -- or infamy) was interviewed. It reminded me why I find anthropology so fascinating. Renfrew mostly discussed ideas related to his most recent book, Prehistory: The Making of the Human Mind. Human technological and social progress during the last 12,000 years greatly exceeded progress during the previous 100,000 years (agriculture, the wheel, writing, etc.). Why? Renfrew has some ideas. I would write more, but I have some work to focus on...

Papua Archaeology

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Wed, 13 May 2009 21:58:00 +0000

An interesting article in Indonesian that will interest my family and others who speak Bahasa. An official in New Guinea discusses the tourism potential of Papuan archaeological sites.

http://oase.kompas.com/read/xml/2009/05/14/01403941/Situs.Arkeologi.Dapat.Menjadi.Wisata.Sejarah

Game theory presentation at BarCamp LA 7

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Mon, 04 May 2009 00:19:00 +0000

At BarCamp LA 7 earlier today I gave an informal introduction to game theory. I have put my slides on my web page. I also delve into Rawls' A Theory of Justice.

PDF
http://www.michaelholtonprice.com/GameTheoryMeanderings.pdf

PPT
http://www.michaelholtonprice.com/GameTheoryMeanderings.ppt

Ants and scientific progress

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Tue, 17 Mar 2009 03:12:00 +0000

When ants move about they leave little chemical markers on the ground. If many ants follow the same, important path (say to food) they will create a strong trail for other ants to follow. Scholars do the same thing as they surf the web. Food is replaced by journal articles (including working papers) and chemical markers are replaced by word of math, blogs, etc. This article describes a study by scientists at the Santa Fe Institute which utitlizes data on scholars' browsing behavior to determine whither blow the winds of scientific inquiry (http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/03/090311124024.htm).

My edge in cultural anthropology

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sun, 01 Mar 2009 00:25:00 +0000

Now that UCLA has rejected me, I am choosing between two excellent anthropology PhD programs, Stanford and Davis. Both are great places to study human behavioral ecology (and anthropology in general). It's rare for me to question my ability to succeed but -- to be candid -- I am daunted by the prospect of taking difficult anthropology classes with talented students who have been studying the field for years. I am most worried about cultural anthropology classes, especially at Stanford which is a Mecca for post-everything thought (post-modernism, post-colonialism, post-processualism in archaeology, etc.). Coming from physics, I anticipate significant "translation" difficulties. Fortunately, I've found an edge.

Whilst scanning my bookshelf for a book to read before heading to a Clippers game tonight, I came across my cache of books from the Classical Studies classes I took at Scripps. I have encountered significant "translation" difficulties before, just in historical contexts rather than ethnographic contexts. Earlier today I read the abstract for a talk on patronage in modern India given by a cultural anthropologist. Patronage?! Why that's a major theme of Roman history! I have plenty of material to draw from -- Petronius' Satyricon (hedonism, counter culture), Lucan's Civil War (violence, literary engagement with the state), Homer's Iliad/Odyssey (oral tradition)... the list goes on. So, I know I'll have to work hard to do well in my cultural classes, but I'm no longer particularly intimidated. In fact, my cultural classmates had better prepare for some difficult discussions of anthropological methodology vis a vis quantum ontology! The tables can be turned :).

Game theory and traffic court

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 02:41:00 +0000

I got jaywalking ticket about a month ago. I considered contesting is (what a dumb ticket!) but the fine wasn't big enough to make it worth taking a morning off work. Nevertheless, it spawned a very interesting idea. I was talking about the ticket with one of my co-workers yesterday. He described fighting a moving violation he'd received (much more expensive). One strategy is to re-schedule your court appearance at the last minute. In fact, you can re-schedule twice! This is a rich situation for game theoretic analysis.

To formalize things about... let's call the contester Player 1 and the policeman (or woman) Player 2 (although I prefer Hero and Darth Vader, respectively). Assume that Player 1 can reschedule at the absolute last minute with no personal cost, after Player 2 has committed to showing up. If Player 1 and 2 both show up at court, Player 1 has a probability p of succesfully contesting the ticket. Otherwise, Player 1 must pay Player 2 (e.g., the county) X dollars. The cost of showing up at court is Y dollars for both players, whether or not the other player shows up (travel, inconvenience, etc. -- actually, there's no good reason the cost must be Y to both; in fact, the opportunity costs may be relatively high for some contesters... such as lawyers and doctors).

If Player 1 shows up the case will be resolved one way or another. Therefore, Player 1 has three pure strategies: (A) show up on the first court date, (B) reschedule once and show up on the second court date, or (C) reschedule twice and show up on the third and final court date. Player 2 has eight potential pure strategies, since Player 2 can show up on any, all, or none of the court dates. I will number Player 2 strategies from zero to seven (think of it in binary)

Decimal Third Date Second Date First Date
0 0 0 0
1 0 0 1
2 0 1 0
3 0 1 1
4 1 0 0
5 1 0 1
6 1 1 0
7 1 1 1

This is enough of a framework to set up the optimization problem and solve for the optimal mixed strategies. I shall leave that as an exercise for the reader (OK, OK, I'm lazy :) ). I reall, really wonder how many academics have written papers on the game theoretic aspects of fighting traffic tickets. There must be a rich body of data to test models.

MHP

Rice + vocabulary = ...

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Mon, 26 Jan 2009 08:26:00 +0000

an ingenuous idea! Do you fancy yourself a sesquipedalianist? Do you eschew obfuscation? Do you want to feed the poor? Then visit http://www.freerice.com. Every time you correctly define a word the organization FreeRice donates ten grains of rice to the UN World Food Program. The word difficulty is adaptive, like the GRE.

Gecko spy bots!

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 05:53:00 +0000

They creep, they crawl, they spy! Oh, and they (will be able to) do other cool stuff, like save people's lives. Make them fly, too, and I'll really be impressed!

San Francisco

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sat, 03 Jan 2009 23:39:00 +0000

I've been in San Francisco for the past week or so. It was a fun trip, but I'm glad to be back in LA. Eh, that's it. I don't feel like writing more.

Scientific Veil of Ignorance

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Thu, 04 Dec 2008 08:25:00 +0000

I've spent the last couple of days hashing out an idea I've had. I use Rawls' original position as a model for a new original position, the scientific original position. A group of scientists must choose a scientific methodology faced with a very real veil of ignorance. They do not know what theories are actually true in the world they inhabit. I've gotten pretty far in a short while, and have chosen to post the introduction. I am strongly considering using this as my writing sample for my graduate applications. I need to flesh it out a little more, though, and clean up the writing.

Thanksgiving

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sat, 29 Nov 2008 06:35:00 +0000

I spent Thanksgiving at my sister's in San Diego. It was great to see my family and relax for a couple days! I met my sister's new cats, Rufus and Temperance (Tempe for short, of course ;)). I'm driving home to LA tomorrow, where it's back to the grind. I promise to follow up with boring posts about game theory, too...

Clinic Final Report Available

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 10:51:00 +0000

I have posted my undergraduate Clinic Final Report online,

www.michaelholtonprice.com/clinic.pdf

There were five undergraduate students on the Clinic team. The abstract and introduction are a good overview of our work. I wrote the technical introduction and derived the Euler-Bernoulli results. What is not clear from the report is that we used my Euler-Bernoulli solution in two ways. In the first semester we used it to design the dimensions of our silicon beams. For that, we didn't need the forced solution: the homogenous solution is sufficient to predict the resonant frequency of the first mode. In the second semester we did need the forced solution, to compare our measured amplitude with our predicted amplitude.

New game invented while dreaming

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sun, 23 Nov 2008 21:32:00 +0000

It's rare for me to come up with new ideas while dreaming. Apparently some people do so all the time. Nevertheless, I invented a new, simplified poker variant while dreaming, and I think I'll try solving it.

The betting structure is identical to that of 2/4 Limit Hold'em, but there are no community cards and each player only receives one card. There are two rounds of betting, with the betting capped at three, and a small and a big blind the first round. Similar to Crazy Pineapple, each player may choose, between the two betting rounds, to randomly exchange his or her dealt card for a new one. Discards and folds go into the muck and may not be drawn by subsequent players. Whether or not each player chooses to exchange is hidden information (not to themselves, of course, but I could change that or other things to explore imperfect recall and absentmindedness).

The payoff is determined by summing two contributions. First, the pot is split among all the winners, where the comparison for winning is the rank of the card. In the case of a tie, the pot is split evenly among all the tying players (yes, allowing for non-integer, rational payoffs). Second, a unique super-winner is declared, based first on rank and then on suit, with a suit ordering from best to worst of diamonds, hearts, clubs, then spades. All the non-folded players must pay the super-winner an amount determined by the suit and rank of the super-winner's card. If the super-winner's card is red, the amount is simply the rank of the card (0 for deuce up to 12 for ace). If the super-winner's card is black the amount is 13 plus the rank of the card.

That is all.

The schools to which I am applying

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 12:33:00 +0000

Here are the schools to which I am applying, organized by deadline:

Dec 1st

UCSB Anthropology, Integrative Anthropological Sciences

Dec 15th

Caltech Humanities and Social Sciences

UCLA Anthropology

UC Davis Anthropology, Evolutionary Wing

Arizona Anthropology

Jan 1st

Arizona State Applied Math for the Life and Social Sciences

Jan 2nd

New Mexico Anthropology

Jan 6th

Stanford Anthropology, Ecology and Environment

Jan 9th

Oregon Anthropology

Jan 23rd

Arizona Applied Math

Feb 15th

UCI Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences

Blog Inception

MichaelHoltonPrice@gmail.com (MHP) — Sat, 22 Nov 2008 11:51:00 +0000

Graduate school applications are my primary concern right now. You can see my Curriculum Vitae at www.michaelholtonprice.com/cv.html. It's no fun working 40+ hours per week while writing personal statements, etc.!